Global trends, trading activity of foreign investors and news flow on tariffs are expected to influence movement in the equity market in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said. Equity markets would remain closed on Wednesday for 'Mahashivratri'.
President Trump with his MAWA has unwittingly provided us this opportunity. Will PM Modi grasp this and leave a legacy of an ushered in scientific and technological revolution in India, asks Colonel Anil A Athale (retd).
'There are ominous portents of an isolationist administration not only building a physical wall to the south to prevent unwanted immigrants from entering the land of milk and honey, but also trade walls not just against China, but all nations,' foresees Sreekant Sambrani.
'It won't be a V-shaped recovery. It'll be consolidation.' 'Investors might exit during that grind. It'll be painful.'
Stock markets are expected to be driven by global trends and FPI trading activity this week after the conclusion of the earnings season, analysts said. Unabated foreign fund outflows, lower-than-expected quarterly earnings and global trade war fears hit market sentiments last week, where the benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty extended their downward trend to the eighth day in a row on Friday.
'Unfortunately, India and Pakistan could learn a 'lesson' from this conflict that will make them more likely to use these weapons against each other in the future.' 'Rounds of missile and drone attacks could be more routine features of their hostility, just like artillery fire has become a familiar fact of life along the Line of Control.'
Stock markets will be mainly driven by quarterly earnings by corporates, foreign fund flows and global trends this week, analysts said.
Among Sensex shares, Zomato, NTPC, Adani Ports, ICICI Bank, State Bank of India, Reliance Industries, Mahindra & Mahindra, Bajaj Finance, Tech Mahindra and Axis Bank were the major laggards. UltraTech Cement and HCL Technologies were the only gainers.
Modi lived up to his declaration that his visit was purely meant to strengthen India's relationship with the US, but there may be situations in which our silence on some issues will haunt us in the future, cautions Ambassador T P Sreenivasan.
Singapore's long-ruling People's Action Party (PAP), led by Prime Minister Lawrence Wong, has secured a landslide victory in the country's general election. The PAP won 87 of 97 seats, with voters endorsing the party's focus on stability and economic security amidst global uncertainties. Wong expressed gratitude for the strong mandate and vowed to tackle concerns about the cost of living and housing. The results mark a significant win for the PAP, which has been in power since Singapore's independence in 1965.
Pakistan has warned the international community that any military moves by India shall be 'responded to assuredly and decisively... onus of any escalatory spiral and its consequences shall squarely lie with India.' Implicit in the statement is a veiled threat that even a nuclear threshold may be reached if push comes to shove, warns Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
What despots and dictators, jammers and competitors, had not managed to do in 83 years -- what the Soviet Union had failed to counter during the Cold War; what China had failed to crush during the Tiananmen Square uprising -- a US President had succeeded with his own hand, notes Krishna Prasad.
'Modi's intention was to create goodwill that will allow India to be seen by Trump as more than just a bad tariff problem.' 'He succeeded brilliantly on that count but none of these wins are unfortunately permanent.' 'Modi will have to do this again and again if Trump's grievances are to be durably assuaged.'
Reacting to Trump's latest move, China has vowed to immediately retaliate.
Gold future prices sustained upward trend for the fourth straight session by surging Rs 2,048 to hit a fresh record high of Rs 100,000 per 10 grams as investors rushed to safe havens after US President Donald Trump indicated plans to overhaul Federal Reserve amid continuing global trade war jitters. On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), the August delivery contract of the yellow metal bounced by Rs 2,048 or 2.1 per cent to hit a fresh peak of Rs 100,000 per 10 grams in the mid-session trade.
Gold prices rallied by Rs 630 to a lifetime high of Rs 82,700 per 10 grams in the national capital on Wednesday following persistent buying by jewellers and retailers amid strong global trends, according to the All India Sarafa Association. Rallying for the sixth straight session, gold of 99.5 per cent purity appreciated by Rs 630 to hit a lifetime high of Rs 82,330 per 10 grams.
Dalal Street had a roller coaster ride in 2024 from shattering record after record to facing heavy correction off-late but equity markets still rewarded investors with positive returns, driven by a surge in domestic fund flows and a resilient macro landscape. The first half of the year saw robust corporate earnings, a surge in domestic flows, and a resilient macro landscape, driving the Nifty to an all-time high of 26,277.35 in September 2024, according to Motilal Oswal Wealth Management.
Although India-US relations have strengthened significantly in recent years, partly because of the security situation in the region, the Indian policy establishment would have to be prepared to protect India's interests in a world that could get more unpredictable.
China supplied more than $20 billion worth of arms to Pakistan. These include 20 J-10CE and JF-17 Block III fighter aircraft, Wing Loong drones, frigates, submarines, Hongqi HQ-9P surface-to-air missiles, 240 PL-15E air-to-air missiles, LY-80 air defence systems, ZDK early warning aircraft and other weapons.
'Retail investors have to stick to their asset allocation plans and continuously do portfolio reviews.'
Foreign investors continue to pull back money from the Indian equity market withdrawing a little over Rs 30,000 crore in the first fortnight of the month amid escalation in global trade tensions. This came following an outflow of Rs 34,574 crore from equities in February and Rs 78,027 crore in January.
From the 30-share blue-chip pack, Mahindra & Mahindra, Zomato, Tata Motors, IndusInd Bank, Reliance Industries, Larsen & Toubro, UltraTech Cement, HDFC Bank, Adani Ports and Bajaj Finserv were among the major laggards. On the other hand, Hindustan Unilever, Tech Mahindra, Nestle, Bharti Airtel and ICICI Bank were among the gainers.
The trigger for international gold prices rising to $3,000 per ounce was Germany's upcoming heavy government borrowing.
During the meeting, the US said it will not add new tariffs on Chinese exports, China's state -run China Daily reported.
India's stock markets corrected recently but foreign money is likely to chase China rather than India in the short-to-medium term, said Chris Wood, global head of equity strategy at Jefferies, on Thursday. Wood told the Business Standard Manthan Summit in New Delhi he is bullish about Indian equities from a long-term perspective, but for the short term he is cautious given the quantum of foreign investor (FII) outflows and valuation woes.
Global brokerage firm CLSA has reversed its early tactical shift from Indian equities to Chinese stocks, and has decided to raise India allocation while cutting exposure to China. In its report titled 'Pouncing Tiger, Prevaricating Dragon', CLSA cited challenges facing Chinese markets in the aftermath of Donald Trump's victory in the US elections as the reason for the move. "Misfortune can happen in threes. So it has played out for Chinese equities over the past week.
The China threat continues to resonate in the strategic partnership between India and the USA, points out Rup Narayan Das.
Dalal Street investors were a poorer lot on Monday as their wealth eroded sharply by Rs 14 lakh crore following a sharp decline in benchmark indices amid a global market meltdown due to recession fears. The 30-share BSE Sensex tumbled 2,226.79 points or 2.95 per cent to settle at 73,137.90. Intra-day, the benchmark slumped 3,939.68 points or 5.22 per cent to 71,425.01.
In response to the panic triggered by Trump's trade policies, the RBI net sold approximately $43 billion in the second half of FY25 to curb volatility, as the rupee plunged to a low of 87.95 per dollar in February this year.
Apple and its vendors are aiming to assemble 32 per cent of iPhone's global production volume and 26 per cent of its value in India by 2026-27 -a year after the final year of the five-year production-linked incentive (PLI) scheme for mobile devices. This could translate into a production value of over $34 billion, assuming global iPhone sales remain consistent with 2023-24 (FY24) levels. The estimates are based on discussions between Apple Inc and its vendors, along with central and state governments, regarding the assembly of products in India, according to sources.
The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) $10 billion US dollar-rupee buy-sell swap auction for three years received bids worth $16.23 billion on Friday, reflecting robust demand amid persistent liquidity deficit in the banking system. This was the second swap auction by the central bank after it infused $5 billion via six month-swap on January 31.
The "weaponisation" of economic activity - through tariffs and sanctions - is now a reality, with countries leveraging these tools strategically, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar said at the Raisina Dialogue recently.
'Consider 40% to 50% in equities, 10% in gold as a hedge, and the remaining 30% to 40% split between multi-asset funds and hybrid funds.'
Trump abruptly rejected the text of the consensus statement and bitterly insulted Canadian PM Trudeau.
The $22.8 billion CK Hutchison ports deal intensifies geopolitical tensions between the US and China. Chinese media has already called it 'a betrayal of all Chinese people'. Shyam G Menon explains how the proposed sale will reshapes global trade infrastructure.
The rupee tumbled 3 per cent against the US dollar in 2024 as concerns over slower economic growth and a stronger greenback in global markets weighed, but it was among the least volatile currencies in the world and the headwinds may be less intense in the coming year.
Gold, a safe-haven bet, is likely to continue its record-smashing journey in the New Year, rising to Rs 85,000 per 10 grams and even Rs 90,000 level in domestic markets if geopolitical tensions and global economic uncertainties continue.
Delhi's appeasement strategy may now translate as more mega arms deals with the US, generating substantial business and job creation in the American economy. Make no mistake, Americans will use it to pressure India, predicts Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
It will be the second Budget of the Modi 3.0 government and eighth straight Budget for Nirmala Sitharaman, rare in Indian polity.
While an official in the Commerce Department indicated a trade war was in the offing, till now the government has been in wait-and-watch mode.
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